Week 40 - Friday 6th of Oct 2019

[realdeal]

Realdeal takes a the early lead with a 1.81% gain. In second place SD 0.66% gain and in third Spiderman with 0.62% gain

[realdeal]

Shorts rule the day. New leader is SD with a 2.15% gain. In second is IRA with a 1.45% gain and third Blygh -0.51%

[sd]

This certainly looks to be the right week to go short! Mid day Indexes all down over -2%- Stops been hit the past 2 days- and today I lightened up on everything long except the Bond fund that is still holding it's own.

When you consider the stats for the market's performance this year, it looks impressive- but the reality it was based on a major decline off of 2018's highs in late August/Sept.

This Chart from the 2018 highs up to today's price action- tells the real story of this past year. Doesn't bode well for the Buy and Hold approach-
i.imgur.com/s0gsmH9.png

[realdeal]

SD lead expands 4.51% gain. In second is IRA with 2.59% gain and third Blygh -2.30%

[realdeal]

SD, You and IRA nailed it regarding the short side, did you do so in real life? SPXU made my list, TA wise things didn't look great but nothing really signaled free falling, that PMI number helped what the TA was saying all along market kept in green until. Gold broke down, yet GLD now +.20 cents for the week the low was 137+. I entered SPXU at 26.50. I posted a chart over the weekend never too confident in how these short ETF's move.

[realdeal]

SD leads 2.94% gain. In second place IRA 0.94% gain and in third Blygh -1.36%

[sd]

NO Real Deal, I had the majority of all positions stop out- with the exception of VCLT- But did not go short - Past few years history has shown me to not be nimble enough - or early enough - to take a short position - because day 3- (that would be my short entry day LOL!) or day 4, the market finds a reason to rally back-Despite the logic it should not be doing so.... Such as it did exactly today-
Now, isn't this truly a bizarre reason for the market to rally today-? A poor MFG or ISM report seems to confirm that the economy is weakening- Ergo- the Fed will be more likely (92%) to cut rates this October-
I'm still too tied up with the day job to get much time to get a focus on the markets- Catch Fast Money when I manage to get out early enough-
GEESH- Seems a perverse logic that the Fed rate cut will correct the market's deficiencies
Saw that a lot of Pot stocks saw buying today- So I'll choose Cambrias's marijuana ETF TOKE long with a stop @ $17.75 at the FC.
And in my accounts- I can short by ETFs- but cannot short individual stocks. And Vanguard -this year- banned trading in short and leveraged ETF's in IRA accounts. Still leaves IB
The recent market weakness makes me much more skeptical. And, if you look at where we were last August, September highs, , We've gone relatively no wheres this past 1 year +
Look at the outperformance of TLT over the prior 1 year + - compared to the larger market- it suggests that the smarter money has long ago gone defensive-XLU- another prime example . Outperforming the major indexes is the underlying story about the real market psychology.
i'm an advocate of Trend following- I suspect that those same larger defensive trends will resume as the economy perhaps weakens , earnings perhaps decline....
Not drinking the KoolAid that all is well with the market on greater data weakness... and the FED riding in to the rescue- I think we get to a point that earnings and valuations actually may have some relevance in this quarter.

[sd]

cANCEL tOKE- before the close- Short TSLA, stop 245.

[realdeal]

SD holds on for the win 1.94% gain. Blygh sneaks into second with a 0.15% gain.. IRA in third with -0.37% . In fourth Spiderman -3.41%. In last place and stopped out geez realdeal -10.14% thats what you get when you mess with low volume crap. P.S. did not buy in real life LOL

[sd]

I'll gladly take the Win- modest as it is....My thinking to go short TSLA for next week's race is based on some of the negativity on TSLA ever able to get to profitability-
I had initially thought to go long TOKE- a cannabis fund by Meb Faber-
However, don't want to underestimate Elon Musk- so the tight stop-loss.
I had some time mid afternoon to consider this market's new bull pop this week- recovering from the earlier selling volatility- I bought a LOT this pm in defensive sectors- and a small spec
VWO position on the expectation there will be optimism about the China talks next week. Earnings season is starting-
And with unemployment at a 50 year low, and not enough live bodies to fill the positions- but wages are flat- Thanks robotics- Is the FED rate cut still necessary for the markets to go rally higher?

[realdeal]

YTD Stats as of 10/4/2019


Click to enlarge

SD has the most wins and YTD gains

[realdeal]

SD,

A W is a W as they say. I think I sent you something on TOKE sometime back, the avg volume is pathetic but its a fairly new issue. It's mostly a Technical bounce with the markets. I went long SPXU and got out for 2+ profit it almost came close to my 30 sell limit but no cigar. I then went long a SPY call option as we bounced off of that 2850 level and Friday we actually closed above the 50 day. Timing could have not be better with both. China talks how long has that been going on feels like 4 years straight LOL. It's a lot of chop and slop here.

-rd

[realdeal]

I'll go with SWCH "long" stop 15

-rd

[Spiderman]

Congrats SD
I'll ride LIN again this week.
Spiderman

[ira85]

Congrats SD!

This week I'll go back to the long side. My short last week seemed like a good call, but it sure didn't last long.

I'll ride ZYXI long this week. ira