WEEK 48 NOV 19-23RD 2018

[blygh]

Week 48                                  
Mon Nov 19                           Post Time                        

                                                    @fc = "At Friday close         dflt = default pick             sh=short

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	St/Lm		Rank
1 Tiarra	COREsht	27.75			%	30
2   Ira	ES	66.98			%	65
3Spiderman	SBLK	9.30			%
4   SD	CRMT	83.00	stopped @78	-5.00	-6.01%	78
5 RealDeal	ICPTdflt	102.83			%
6   Blygh	SHEN	47.80			%	44/57
7   Market	SPY	273.05			%
8	QQQ	166.74			%

[blygh]

Week 48                                  
Mon Nov 19                           At the first turn                        

                                                    @fc = "At Friday close         dflt = default pick             sh=short

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	St/Lm		Rank
1 Tiarra	COREsht	27.75	27.77	+0.02	-0.072%	30		3
2   Ira	ES	66.98	67.38	+0.40	+0.60%	65		1
3Spiderman	SBLK	9.30	8.74	-0.56	-6.02%			7 TIE
4   SD	CRMT	83.00	STOPPED  78 83.46	-5.00	-6.02%	78		7TIE
5 RealDeal	ICPTdflt	105.11	103.83	-1.28	-1.22%			4
6   Blygh	SHEN	47.80	48.03	+0.23	+0.48%	44/57		2
7   Market	SPY	273.05	269.22	-3.83	-1.40%			5
8	QQQ	166.74	162.06	-4.68	-2.81%			6

Ira leads - Blygh chasing - SD stopped out despite a late gain

[sd]

That was quick!
Here's the charts:
stockcharts.com/public/1675108

[Spiderman]

Not too sure if this is the place to ask this question.
What is going on with this stock market? Do you guys think this Bear Market will continue?
My mutual funds are taking a beating.
HELP!!!

[blygh]

Of the factors I cited previously I have concluded that there the overarching factor in the sell off is . . . .  Insurance companies are selling off stock to raise capital to pay claims from the California fires and the Florida hurricane.  The market will stay soft until the insurers raise enough capital to re-invest.   I figure a year and a half  - buying DTO QID TECS 

BLYGH 

[blygh]

Week 48                                  
TUES Nov 20                          into the back stretch                        

                                                    @fc = "At Friday close         dflt = default pick             sh=short

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	St/Lm		Rank
1 Tiarra	COREsht	27.75	26.98	-0.77	+2.78%	30		1
2   Ira	ES	66.98	67.64	+0.66	+0.99%	65		3
3Spiderman	SBLK	9.30	8.16	-1.14	-12.26%			8
4   SD	CRMT	83.00	stopped 78 last 74.11	-5.00 last -8.89	-6.02%	78		7
5 RealDeal	ICPTdflt	105.11	106.75	+1.64	+1.56%			2
6   Blygh	SHEN	47.80	47.82	+0.02	+0.04%	44/57		4
7   Market	SPY	273.05	264.15	-8.90	-3.26%			5
8	QQQ	166.74	159.16	-7.58	-4.55%			6

Lead change - Tiarra  leads -Real Deal chasing  board corrected -had erroneous open price for ICPT 

[sd]

That's an interesting- explanation Blygh! I think the predictions of a slower GDP as we move into 2019 , but with the underlying strength of full employment will keep this market out of a recession- at least I hope so-
Spiderman- RE: mutual funds- My suggestion is to review your allocation and rebalance- if you are allowed to change the weighting between funds without triggering a capital gains event-
assuming you hold multiple and diversified funds grouped under one company's offerings. Rebalancing one's portfolio on a periodic basis is considered by many the appropriate way to
manage a long only portfolio-might want to consider reducing your exposure to the more volatile sectors and increasing exposure to more defensive sectors- healthcare, staples, utilities etc. but how much more damage will we see? If the growth funds you own hold assets across multiple sectors, you may want to consider some balanced funds vs growth.

Are we within 5%$ of a bottom? If so, why react? or will we go down another -10% ? 20% The obvious fear for investors is that this becomes a global recession and the US Bull market comes to a grinding halt. I personally don't think this will occur- but that's the gamble-
Conversely, Warren Buffet would likely recommend that Now is a good time to consider stepping up one's purchases- increase your contributions as we get cheaper.

Wasn't it about this time last year that Howard Marks rattled the markets with his decree that things were grossly overpriced? and yet the markets then went on to have a big run up in January-Then we sold off and gradually came back ...
Statistically, Those of us that try to time the markets end up underperforming in the long run-We run for the exits just as the markets stabilize- and perhaps rally higher- leaving us on the sidelines- and chasing to get back in at higher prices-
I bought some tech yesterday-VGT and utilities-VPU Tech as it gapped down, and Utilities as it's making a new high... It looks this am that the market may try to give an oversold bounce this Wednesday- Note that VPU sold off last year until Feb low, and has since been conservatively moving higher-4% on the ytd with an average 11% return over the past 5 years.
Doesn't have the sizzle-
Good Luck! I'm heading for the Rolaids

[blygh]

Week 48                                  
Wed Nov 21                           Out of the back stretch                       

                                                    @fc = "At Friday close         dflt = default pick             sh=short

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	St/Lm		Rank
1 Tiarra	COREsht	27.75	27.25	-0.50	+1.80%	30		2
2   Ira	ES	66.98	66.42	-0.56	-0.84%	65		3
3Spiderman	SBLK	9.30	8.59	-0.71	-7.63%			8
4   SD	CRMT	83.00	stopped @78 last 73.28	-5.00	-6.01%	78		7
5 RealDeal	ICPTdflt	105.11	109.73	+4.62	+4.40%			1
6   Blygh	SHEN	47.80	47.19	-0.61	-1.28%	44/57		4
7   Market	SPY	273.05	265.02	-8.03	-2.94%			5
8	QQQ	166.74	160.37	-6.37	-3.82%			6

Lead change - Real Deal now 1st - Tiarra chasing 

[sd]

Have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving All!
Nice to see a pause in the selling!
See how we hold up after the Holiday-
Welcome Davers. Got an entry in mind for next week's race?

[Spiderman]

Thanks Blygh and SD.
I really appreciate your input about the current markets.
I'll probably hold and hope for the best.
Spiderman

[sd]

I'll take a shot at the FC with GMDA- a new Biotech that is up sharply Wed and today.
Target sell is $20.00 with a stop at$9.99. Note that the IBB appears to be making a dbl bottom- see if the $100 level holds
ARKG- is a narrower genomics ETF, and has appeared to track higher -up 10% from it's low- IBB is lesser risk- trade- I was considering ARKG for the race...and a possible position.

[blygh]

Week 48                                  
Fri Nov 23                           At the finish . . . .                       

                                                    @fc = "At Friday close         dflt = default pick             sh=short

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	St/Lm		Rank
1 Tiarra	COREsht	27.75	26.75	-1.00	+3.60%	30		2
2   Ira	ES	66.98	66.82	-0.16	-0.24%	65		3
3Spiderman	SBLK	9.30	8.87	-0.43	-4.62%			7
4   SD	CRMT	83.00	stopped @78 last 70,70	-5.00	-6.01%	78		8
5 RealDeal	ICPTdflt	105.11	111.07	+5.96	+5.67%			1
6   Blygh	SHEN	47.80	47.49	-0.31	-0.649%	44/57		4
7   Market	SPY	273.05	263.32	-9.73	-3.56%			5
8	QQQ	166.74	159.21	-7.55	-4.52%			6

Real Deal to the winners' circle - Tiarra hot in second place 

[blygh]

YTD for 2018 as of 11/23/18 Week 48

Rider	Wins	Place	Show	YTD	Default	YTD
Tiarra	6	9	5	+18.811%	AA
Ira	10	13	4	+211.150%	VIXYsht
Spiderman	7	5	2	-57.888%	ESIO
SD	4	5	6	+13.441%	XBI
Real Deal	10	4	6	+17.923%	ICPT
Blygh	9	5	7	+12.814%	QLYS	*
Market		6	15	-15.213%**	SPY

                       Ira extends his lead - Tiarra  second - Real Deal now third                                         
** assumes SPY index was bought every Monday at the opening price and sold every Friday at the closing price *SINCE 3/11

[/quote]

[sd]

Congrats Real Deal!

[ira85]

Next week BCRX long, stop @ 8.70

Congrats to our two hot hands, Real Deal and Tiarra!

My pick this week is made in hopes SD is right about biotech. -ira