WEEK OF 14 August thru 18 Aug 2017 Week 32

[blygh]

Monday Aug 14
Week 32                                                 

The morning line

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37				220
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50				16.5
Spiderman	UNT	17.26
4    SD	XIV	80.26
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07				22
7   Market	SPY	245.59
8	QQQ	143.26

  

[sd]

This week I included Weekly charts with the Daily-


stockcharts.com/public/1675108

[blygh]

Monday Aug 14
Week 32                                                 

Into the far turn

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37	227.36	+.99	+0.44%	220		4
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50	19.05	+0.55	+3.00%	16.5		2
Spiderman	UNT	17.26	16.86	-0.40	-2.32%			7
4    SD	XIV	80.26	84.06	+3.80	+4.73%			1
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50	11.60	+0.10	+0.87%			3
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07	19.10	+0.03	-0.16%	22		6
7   Market	SPY	245.59	246.54	+0.98	+0.40%			5
8	QQQ	143.26	143.93	+0.67	+0.47%

  

SD takes the early lead - Ira chasing

[blygh]

Tuesday Aug 15
Week 32                                                 

                                        out of the far turn

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37	227.59	+1.22	+0.54%	220		3
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50	19.25	+0.75	+4.05%	16.5		2
Spiderman	UNT	17.26	16.46	-0.80	-4.64%			7
4    SD	XIV	80.26	84.56	+4.30	+5.36%			1
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50	11.35	-0.15	-1.3%			6
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07	19.04	-0.03	+.16%	22		5
7   Market	SPY	245.59	246.51	+0.92	+0.37%			4
8	QQQ	143.26	1.44.03	+0.77	+0.54%

  SD holding the lead - Ira close on 

 

[blygh]

Wednesday

Aug 16
Week 32                                                 

                    OUT OF THE BACK STRETCH A TWO HORSE RACE

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37	225.61	-0.76	-0.34%	220		5
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50	20.00	+1.50	+8.11%	16.5		1
Spiderman	UNT	17.26	15.87	-1.39	-8.05%			7
4    SD	XIV	80.26	84.96	+4.70	+5.86%			2
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50	11.25	-0.25	-2.17%			6
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07	18.96	-0.11	+0.58%	22		3
7   Market	SPY	245.59	246.96	+1.37	+0.56%			4
8	QQQ	143.26	144.28	+1.02	+0.71%

Lead change - Ira over takes SD in the back stretch

[blygh]

Thurs Aug 17                                        
Week 32                                                 

                                     in to the home stretch

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37	221.42	-4.95	-2.19%	220		4
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50	19.25	+0.75	+4.05%	16.5		1
Spiderman	UNT	17.26	15.42	-1.84	-10.7%			7
4    SD	XIV	80.26	72.50	-7.76	-9.67%			6
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50	11.00	-0.50	-4.35%			5
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07	18.64	-0.43	+2.25%	22		2
7   Market	SPY	245.59	243.09	-2.50	-1.02%			3
8	QQQ	143.26	141.33	-1.93	-1.35%

  Ira hangs on to hold the lead - Blygh advances to second on a short sale

[sd]

Just when I thought the market had a tough skin-and largely ignored the political wrangling- Not immune any more!
Markets held up well yesterday, but apparently decided to take some chips off the table today!
Are we going to see a big buy opportunity over the next few days?
How about that -20% lower limit order?

[blygh]

I think we are going to have increased volatility with a downside bias -  a sell the rallies and buy the dips kind of market - 
Blygh

[blygh]

Fri Aug 18
Week 32                                                 

Across the finish line 

                                                                                   @fc = "At Friday close

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	GS	226.37	222.15	-4.87	-2.15%	220		4
2   Ira	NVCR	18.50	18.85	+0.35	+1.89%	16.5		2
Spiderman	UNT	17.26	16.03	-1.23	-7.13%			6
4    SD	XIV	80.26	73.89	-6.37	-7.94%			7
5  RealDeal	TGTX	11.50	10.85	-0.65	-5.65%			5
6   Blygh	HPQSHT	19.07	18.51	-0.56	+2.94%	22		1
7   Market	SPY	245.59	242.71	-2.88	-1.17%			3
8	QQQ	143.26	141.23	-2.03	-1.42%

  

Blygh surges into the lead in the home stretch for the win - Ira second

[blygh]

YTD for 2017 as of 8/18/2017 Week 32

Rider	Wins	Place	Show	YTD	Default	YTD default
Tiarra	6	2	5	+11.4971%	ETSY
Ira	5	9	4	+24.107%	VIXY short
Spiderman	5	4	4	-41.703%	EXAS
SD	3	4	6	-10.117%	XBI
Real Deal	2	7	1	-39.791%	CREESINCE 3/28
Blygh	11	3	1	+18.312%	ISRG
Market		3	11	+5.4088%

Ira continues to lead the YTD race

 
 

[blygh]

I was surprised to see every other rider go long -  August/September are the worst months for stocks - especially after a significant rise.

Next week - PBYI short  8/20   20:13 edit  - stop loss - 21 - Rationale: over 20% of the shares are shorted - the shares had undergone a euphoric rise now demand seems to be drying up.   

Blygh 

[sd]

Congrats Blygh!
You are indeed correct about the Seasonality effect- August & September- While Not always holding true every year.....Your instincts were Spot On! The market momentum had appeared strong leading into August-but perhaps there were signs of a weakening market- narrow market breadth keeping us afloat...

I think the market responding to the Korean Rhetoric last week, was just the tipping point in the market momentum, followed by the increased political diviseiveness (sp?) in Washington and
our President's losing the support of CEO's - Even with Bannon being ousted, it was not enough to put the market back on firm footing- I thought the market would recover over the Korea news- as it appeared to do initially- Followed by the unfortunate violence in VA- and Trump's failure to initially publically condemn radical extremists was taken as being supportive of the white supremacy movement.... and the following "Thank You" from the hard right extremists was just icing on the cake- and the political criticism from within the Republican party as well is increased. Trumps inability to refrain from lashing out and tweeting/attacking.. those that disagree with him - just seems so immature and amateurish.....and only increases the tension! JMHO...
This only highlights the difficult road ahead to think that any positive initiatives - infrastructure- defense- Tax reform, etc can get passed.

While this forum is for trading....when political extraneous events affect the markets- it deserves attention.

[blygh]

Many years ago  1963 - I took a year off from college and worked on Wall St.  - In August there was a notable lull in trading activity.  One of my co-workers told me that was because the senior traders took the month off and headed out to the Hamptons.  The absence of buyers was thought to be the explanation of falling prices.  

The big political question is the corporate income taxes - how can a cut be revenue neutral? - if the cut is not revenue neutral, the deficit will worsen - GOP apostasy -  the deficit hawks may torpedo the tax cut. 

How can Trump promote his base - the Joe/Jane Sixpacks looking to make $30/hr for unskilled labor.  - will that be good for the market?  Probably not - If Trump tries to correct the trade deficit he will have to get tough with China which he needs to check North Korea.   Either the change in tax structure is baked into the market or its probability of being initiated is in question.  I am staying on the sidelines and shorting sinking sectors.  I am down on biotech, retail, energy.
Blygh 

[Spiderman]

Congrats Blygh,
I'll ride UNT long again.
Spiderman

[realdeal]

Congrats Blygh!

Everything I want to go long is under the 8 mark... shame going get some violent dead cat bounces.

I'll go with AAOI (short) lets see if 60 support holds....

-rd