Week of 31 Oct to November 5 2016

[blygh]

Thanks - I still can't see much which I think will drive the market higher - except short covering - the clearest down trends are health care and energy - I think Brazil  (EWZ) is undergoing a correction based on energy prices - PBR - Putting  trends and gut feelings together I will short USO stop loss at 11,  limit 8.25


Welcome back Realdeal.  

Blygh 

[tiarra]

Congrats, Blygh.

My horse actually did well this week for a few days!

KSS short.

SD, do you think Hillary will win?

[sd]

Yes Tiarra,
I think Hillary will likely win the election-
The initial impact of Comey telling congress they had found some +650.000 e-mails on Weiner's computer was a huge smoking gun, causing Hillary to lose the lead she had. , but Hillary has pulled the stops out with big entertainer names at rallies.She had regained a few points back into the lead again-.... Just this Sunday night- Comey reports that in their review of the new e-mails they have not found any additional evidence to change their previous decision that her actions were unintentional. This should come as a great relief for her supporters and those undecided that were perhaps sitting on the fence and had not yet voted.
What is confusing about the FBI role - is that Comey, and the FBI is not empowered to choose to be the decision maker in determining " intent" -That should be done through the Court -as Comey agreed that Clinton made numerous false statements about sending classified information , that she tried to "wipe' out her devices and server even after getting subpoenaed (obstruction of justice anyone?), also, that she actually likely had her -email hacked etc, and - IF anyone other than Clinton had done a similar series of such negligent actions, they would be arrested and charged.

How is it possible, that as Secretary of State, SHE- a paid government employee could have over 50% of those she met with in that capacity , make very large contributions to the Clinton Foundation?
How is it that the news media exploits the vulgarities of Trump and his affluent position and his approach to women , while ignoring complaints from numerous women that the actions of the presidential candidates husband over decades of infidelities and abuse/possible rape- was known by her and these women -while victims- were systematically denied -by her.

While she takes millions of $$$ from nations that oppress women as second class citizens, and yet she promotes herself as the 1st woman seeking the presidency, and furthering woman's rights.
I personally think a woman president with strong principles seeking to reinforce equality for all- gender included- would condemn those countries that treat women as a lower caste from men .
She should stand for what she claims- in her dealings with the rest of the world- and condemn oppression in those societies where this occurs, and not take contributions from them for her silence.

Other than that biased perspective-
Clinton represents a continuance of the status quo. She has been a government player and survivor and planner for 30 years. She is part of the system in place, and wants to expand that.
She does not represent change - she represents an extension of that which is already empowered- and that likely means that those in power stay in power, and that those that want to lessen government intervention will lose-

Clinton represents a continuance, reliance on government for expanded programs- Trump represents the emotion of a lot of Americans that feel disenfranchised- abandoned and denied-Union workers, and textile workers, and millions of Americans caught in the economic sea change that is technology and the free market place to choose where is the value in the exchange of goods and services. It may have been China 2 years ago- it may be Malaysia this past year, or Nairobi.... But it is not the US of A.....

Trump represents the passion that many Americans feel..... that a continuation and extension of the policies of the past 8 years will only see a further continued decline in the struggle of the Average American family to Try and hold their ground, . ... After all, Millions more on now on government assistance- as decent jobs for the blue collar middle class are evaporating. and lower paying-service jobs - "Do you want Fries with that?" are the remaining jobs available.

What is noteable about this election on both sides- is that the democrats had Bernie Sanders as their disruptor- and the Republicans ended up choosing Trump as the Disruptor-
Both candidates offered the American voters a chance to make a choice for change- .

Where do we go from here?
i like the idea of 8 weeks of vacation a year, and my doctor's visits are all paid for.
I like that my education will all be paid for by the government! OK- I forgot to add that the government gets the monies from the working people.......
Parlevous Francais?

I went off on a tangent-
Yes, Hillary wins - But do the American people win?> Do my children win? I fear not-.......
At best it is a Holding action.

Who pays the Piper ?
the Answer- Hillary by 3%

[blygh]

Did folks see 60 Miutes this Sunday Nov 6 The pollster who questioned a random sample of Trump and Hillary supporters said he had never see that kind of hostility in 20 years of research.  He closed with saying that if the loser cannot find words to unite us on Nov 8 then the consequences on Nov 9th will be "horrific." If there is widespread uncontrolled hostility on Nov 9, the negative effect on the market will be the least of our worries 

Blygh 

[tiarra]

I really do not want another four years of the last eight years. I don't think the losing candidate can unify this country. Most people don't even know what they want, or even why they want it. I have spent a lot of time talking to people about who they voted for and most people just recite media headlines or are seriously clueless about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. One person I talked with this morning voted for Hillary because she is convinced Trump has dealings with Russia, yet she doesn't even know why or if that is actually a bad thing! She is clueless about Russia, The Cold War, or life outside her neighborhood in general. I am an avid Trump supporter and really hope he wins. While I don't think he is perfect, or Sunday School teacher material, I really like his policies. DG was a huge Bernie Sanders supporter. It would be interesting to know how he would feel about the way Sanders was treated. I would be livid if I were a Sanders supporter.

[sd]

\
I also voted for Trump- There are things about him that I don't care for-but I think we need real change in the conventional political system- that is for both entrenched Republicans as well as democrats-The fact that so many Republicans failed to "support the party's nominee" just shows how divided the party is-
The fact that Sanders was undermined by the democratic party process just illustrates how the status quo will do anything it can to perpetuate itself.
I think that many voters base their decision on just a few talking points that capture their attention,most of it through the slanted advertisements that demean the opposition.
Trump has an uphill battle to capture the win at this point, and is certainly seen as unlikely to be able to get the necessary electoral votes needed.
If Hillary wins, and if congress shifts- We will have a new Justice nominated that will fall in line with the party's agenda.
Expect a continuation of the past 8 years- and by many metrics- the promises made failed to reach fruition by Obama's policies.

Clinton will continue to Tax , more companies will continue to leave for less hostile and punitive policies, and the US will stagnate in a no- or low growth climate.
JMHO

[tiarra]

Unfortunately, I shared your concern. We'll see what happens tomorrow night.

[sd]

[font size="4"
bETTING ON THE ELECTION AND POSITIONING YOURSELF FOR THE RESULTS IS AKIN TO TAKING A POSITION DURING EARNINGS-
you're not sure of what the results may be- but the move will likely be large- the direction is the unknown.


[/font]