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Post by sd on Jul 28, 2016 19:31:53 GMT -5
Yes, Wow- that was a slam down at the open! Filled at $47.70 then moved right back higher! Also COW stopped out -
You were right to not hold into earnings!- I heard on the drive into work that HOG gave weak forward guidance- but I didn't get computer access until this pm at home.
Wouldn't have been able to do anything to change the result- I certainly would not have cancelled the stop .
Right now i'm experimenting with the TA indicator approach and it's interesting-The indicator never broke down to issue a sell - Had i not had a stop, I would have still been in the trade- but I am accustomed to always put in a stop, and i felt that was a reasonable one- not anticipating the gap down on the open and return to the upside -all in 2 hours!
Fortunately, it was a small position- but my anticipated $1 loss was $3 or so !
Not an issue.Cow filled $21.65 -stop was $21.75 much better on slippage!
Since i'm not set up to be a day trader- Financially, emotionally, and need to keep the day job because it pays better- my trading is holding a swing position for days-if possible-
This recent market up trend is the longest we've seen in some time- It could falter at any time....
So, a $.20 move in price higher would not prompt me to make a sell - for my style of trading and limited position size-
I had a much large position size in MSFT and reacted to trend weakness and caught -I think- a 3% gain-similarly with GOOG.
I thought it would be "Fun" -and perhaps instructive- and likely profitable - to take some positions in the horse Race picks (No pressure there Racers! My mortgage payment is coming up, so I'm looking for good selections ! LOL!) I also thought the racers might enjoy a different view of their horse- If i have the time to do that each week, i will but cannot commit 100%
This holding into Earnings turned out to be quite a reaction though!
I do increase my position size in some trades- but as i am just easing back into more trading activity, I will likely apply a small position to the Horse race picks- and may opt out -or use buy-stop /limits and not purchase at the open.
looking forward to next week- I will stay with this week's horse- expecting greater volatility to make the move higher!
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Post by blygh on Jul 28, 2016 20:35:14 GMT -5
Oops - you are right Tiarra - in real world you would have been stopped out at 48 - That's the problem with stops - Just this week II was stopped with CRUS at 40.5 and missed an 8 pt rise today- oh well
Blygh
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Post by tiarra on Jul 29, 2016 7:40:53 GMT -5
I hate that you got stopped at around the low of the day; especially considering HOG bounced from there and went up and closed at 51.01.
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Post by sd on Jul 29, 2016 10:08:23 GMT -5
That's the trade-off in trying to protect your downside Risk- It potentially could have gone considerably lower .
So, the slippage- the price you may actually get filled at and the price you set your stop-loss at is never a known factor.
As Bly commented in the prior post, he was stopped out and then price reversed higher - he missed the $8 upside move that followed.
The "Where" to set your stops is always the questions- Tight stops beg to be whipsawed. With HFT computers- they know where traders will align their stops- and they can likely have enough substance to push price down and buy the stop order as it executes with a limit buy order at those lower levels.
Still, it's a cost of doing business---and -only by position sizing your exposure, do you hope to reduce the overall impact on the portfolio-
If this had been a -bet-it all trade on Hog, and my stop was designed to only lose 2% max- this one exposure would have taken a 6% portfolio cut.
I don't have any negative feelings- The stop was at a logical level-just under the recent base, and it executed as it should have- Sure, ideally the open would not have gapped so low,
but it did what the trade was supposed to do. 
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Post by tiarra on Jul 29, 2016 13:58:25 GMT -5
The whipsawed effect happens more so during earnings. Today HOG's high was 57.33, albeit briefly!!
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Post by sd on Jul 29, 2016 14:49:27 GMT -5
Amazing movements!
I have to go with VXZ as the contrarian play-again this week- $VIX at extreme lows here.
I'll make my pick before the close so i can get the closing price as my entry- I'll review the position and post my stop-loss and limit sell later
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Post by blygh on Jul 29, 2016 18:19:21 GMT -5
Day 5
| Rider | Horse | Open | Latest | Gain/ Loss | % change | Stop | Limit | Position | | Tiarra | HOG | 50.11 | 52.92 stop | -2.11 | -4.2% | 48 |
| 5 | | Ira | MSFT short | 56.47 | 56.68 | +0.19 | 0.34% |
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| 2 | | SD | VXZ | 10.17 | 9.83 | -.34 | -3.3% |
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| 4 | | Blygh | MMSI | 21.81 | 23.44 | +1.63 | +7.5% |
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| | MARKET | SPY | 217.00 | 217.12 | -0.22 | 0.1% |
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Post by blygh on Jul 29, 2016 18:29:43 GMT -5
| Tiarra | -7.2% | | Ira | +22.6% | | SD | -2.6% | | Blygh | +6% |
If Tiarra did not hit a stop she would have been up 3.8% this week and up 0.5% accumulated gains |
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Post by sd on Jul 29, 2016 18:57:24 GMT -5
Nice WIN Blygh, and the Only one to finish IN the money!
I posted my pick- to continue with VXZ next week -posted before the close-
I definitely will try to get the stop and limit I want to use posted -hopefully Saturday!
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Post by blygh on Jul 29, 2016 19:41:13 GMT -5
For next week I am undecided between NKTR and ININ. Both up on heavy volume with lots of insider buying. I guess ININ long
Blygh |
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Post by sd on Jul 30, 2016 6:23:07 GMT -5
i THOUGHT i'D TRY TO POST SOME OF THE CHARTS OF THE RACE- iF I HAVE THE TIME THIS AM.
INSTEAD OF POSTING LONGER TERM DAILY CHARTS, THIS IS A 2 HR CHART TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE THE PRICE MOVEMENTS-
NOTE THAT TIARRA'S 48 STOP-LOSS APPEARED PLENTY GENEROUS BELOW THE PRIOR RANGE- BUT EARNINGS VOLATILITY TOOK PRICE BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SD HAD A ACTUAL SMALL TRACKING POSITION- JUST 10 SHARES- WITH A "bUY-sTOP" AS THE CRITERIA TO GET FILLED-PRICE HAD TO MOVE HIGHER-
iT DID THE DAY BEFORE EARNINGS-
EARNINGS APPARENTLY SET UP FOR SELL ORDERS- EXECUTING SD'S STOP FOR A MUCH LARGER LOSS THAN INTENDED.- THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF SLIPPAGE- PRICE GETTING FILLED WAY APART FROM THE ORDER LEVEL.
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Post by sd on Jul 30, 2016 7:52:59 GMT -5
CHART OF BLYGH'S WINNING PICK
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Post by sd on Jul 30, 2016 8:23:59 GMT -5
iRA'S SHORT PICK MSFT
Had a prior gap move higher the prior week. Gap was large, but did not retrace below the low of the gap day- yet
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Post by tiarra on Jul 30, 2016 16:48:24 GMT -5
BLYGH
ATVI long, which has earnings Thursday. Stop loss is at 38
I will have to choose a different strategy for our weekly trades. Trading earnings is something I have only done bull/put spreads on, but not stock. I only started doing this because I needed big movements to keep up with the ETF trades. But if I can put in stops, earnings will kill me! lol
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Post by sd on Jul 30, 2016 17:57:55 GMT -5
Now that leveraged ETF's are not allowed, the playing field (race track) is pretty level for all traders- Making a good stock selection (leader of a group) ,potentially would perform better than the industry group ETF it would be assigned to.
applying stops and limit sells are optional- This past race is certainly a great example of the potential for whipsaws!
It might be a good practice/experience to apply stops in the horse race since positions are held throughout the week though, particularly if you use them in your actual trading.
The opportunity to benefit from stops is that a losing trade would potentially be reduced by a well-placed stop- improving the traders potential loss that week.
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