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Post by blygh on May 19, 2012 9:36:09 GMT -5
You guys confirm my 'economist' sense of what is going on - Not sure about the 'trader' side - earnings still seem strong. My economist side says we will undergo strong deflation -at least until Europe -resets - (10 yr Treasuries at 1.77%  ?- 10 year German Bunds at 1.44% ??) . I had this attitude last Fall and ended up getting my clock cleaned and missed the Jan-March bull. I bought AGQ and NUGT this week for precious metals - Holding bear ETFs DTO, SRS, LHB, SDS, DUG, EUM, TWM with tight stops in retirement accounts. It is getting to be work watching this market as closely as it needs. The trader in me says it could turn on a dime. On the other hand the bull market lasted 3 years March 2009 - March 2012 and that is about average. |
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Post by sd on May 19, 2012 12:36:23 GMT -5
I think you are right to watch things carefully- No telling -like Ira said- If Europe will pull another rabbit out of the hat- We've had a substantial down turn, and with the president meeting this weekend, the mkt better see a ray of sunshine from the political front. I noticed you had silver & the miners, but not GLD. or the Ultra UGL- Gold has fallen along with the market- as it initially did in 2008- It had not acted as the safe haven initially then or now- This week, it also rallied, but still is technically downtrending. Weekly chart:  |
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Post by blygh on May 22, 2012 19:46:51 GMT -5
Well if 2011 matched 2007 (at least until Oct 1 2011) - will 2012 match 2008 (shiver!!) - parallels - a three year bull market ended in Oct 2007 - Has the three year bull market from March 2009 to March 2012 ended - the sell off if 2008 was in the fall and precipitated by the fall of Lehman and the whole banking crisis ensued. If Greece repudiates its debts and leaves the Euro - I have read would be a more serious than Lehman. Banks make money by constantly re-lending repaid loans - skimming off interest. If repayments stops so does re-lending. If Greece defaults will Spain, Portugal , Italy and/or Ireland follow?? If they do - Game over. With 10 year Fed Treasuries at 1.77 % interest - I am not the only one worried.
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Post by blygh on May 31, 2012 15:40:20 GMT -5
I think we are at a turning point - if I had to bet (and I am) I expect a flat market until June 16 then a good pop - May is over and so is "go away" - (I think it be even worse next year ) This year it -"Go away in May"was a self-fulfilling prophesy. Tight stops are in on DTO, SRS, LHB, SDS, DUG, EUM, - some hit today
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Jun 1, 2012 18:27:01 GMT -5
Didn't quite get my "flat market" --- upping all stops on bearish ETFs - A commentator on CNBC said this is simply an extension of the last recession which was disguised by QE2. I am still net short on stocks. There is nothing to drive this market. $280 billion would put 7 million people to work at $40,000 each - this is equal to our trade deficit with China. It would cut unemployment by 50%. Washington dies not have the guts to do what needs to be done - Deflation is inevitable.
Blygh
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Jun 8, 2012 6:28:59 GMT -5
I am now more worried than ever about systemic failure of the international banking system - Too much hangs on the mood of the irrational element of the Greek populace and willingness of the ECB to bail out the Spanish banks. I am retreating into short term treasuries and TIPS - shorting consumer discretionary and energy. Most tight stops have been hit on my short ETFs.
Blygh
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Post by sd on Jun 9, 2012 7:51:46 GMT -5
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ira85
New Member
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Post by ira85 on Jun 17, 2012 12:46:40 GMT -5
Like blygh, the danger of a European systemic failure seems high. I just can't see how the Euro countries will survive without Germany (and possibly the US) agreeing to major re-structuring. And it's hard to see how Germany could get popular support of it's people to fund bailouts for their less responsible neighbors. But it also seems like a can't win position for Germany. If they fail to agree on major re-structuring and the Euro zone fails, they'll get clobbered. Heads they lose, tails they lose. So maybe in an environment of mutual assured destruction the Europeans will find a way out of a seemingly impossible mess. For all our sake I hope so. I don't buy the assurance of pundits who say the US won't be much affected by defaults in Europe. The next few months seem like an especially perilous time. -ira
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Post by blygh on Jul 4, 2012 7:35:33 GMT -5
Getting more skeptical. I am raising cash starting July 5 - It has been tough to hold on the short funds EPV (shorts Europe), LHB (shorts South America), FXP (shorts China). I may buy some puts on them to insure against some 'miracle' turnaround in those area. We are heading for another National Debt Limit Crisis in a tough election year = more sharply divided Congress. Automatic spending cuts and expiration of Bush era tax cuts would trim $600 billion from the economy (= 15 million jobs @$40,000/year/job). New highs on the exchanges are heavy with Munibond funds and preferred stocks. I cannot explain rise in oil prices - maybe Iranian threats and boycotts. There is just very little on the horizon to inspire confidence - at least not much that I can see (maybe some promising biotechs and agricultural stocks. I bought more IBB and COWL this week.
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Post by sd on Jul 7, 2012 21:09:59 GMT -5
As part of a shorter term strategy, I took an EPV position Friday-
This is a purely speculative very short term play as I don't expect the present market players to tell the world the game is over any time soon. The what-appears -inevitable- may be extended for months or years.
As long as markets and currencies can be manipulated, we are left with a situation where logic can be postponed until the day it cannot be postponed any further-
The present fiefdoms and governments expect that day of reckoning will be a long ways off. Since they hold the cards, and ultimately represent the house, they are likely right. To fight the house is a losing battle inb the near term.
SD
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?- 10 year German Bunds at 1.44% 
