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Post by bankedout on Nov 24, 2010 9:28:57 GMT -5
It could easily go as SD described.
However, if there is a catalyst such as a natural disaster or terrorist attack, don't forget how delicate our system is. It didn't take long for New Orleans to completely break down after the hurricane.
We keep poking and prodding China politically, demanding they do things with their currency etc. Up until now they have not retaliated, just simply disregarded us as a total non-threat. They do have the capacity to ignite a financial meltdown, if they choose. Some call it a nuclear economic attack. Our economy is based on a currency system that we no longer have ultimate control over. Without that system functioning, it would be a disaster.
These are possibilities, but nothing you can plan on as absolutely taking place in the future. If any of us could accurately predict the future, we would be in that top 1% in short order.
Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy the "good" times while they last.
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Post by dg on Nov 24, 2010 17:33:56 GMT -5
right back at you, good buddy!
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Post by dg on Nov 24, 2010 17:50:38 GMT -5
sd:
Darn it! Ira beat me to it. Yes Moore's law is about computer technology doubling it capability. I don't think it would apply to economic cycles.
How this for an idea? The USA declares itself debt free due to all of its policing of the world beginning with WW II. Next the USA becomes totally isolationist (it would have to) and prints new money (scraping the old) good only in the USA. It then only allows businesses that are located inside US borders and hires only US citizens to buy and sell inside the USA. The transition would be a bit rough, but this way our grandchildren would have something to look forward to.
Too extreme? Now yes; but in a few months ... ?
BTW, the real unemployment in this country is more like 20%. The government delibertly mistates this number by excluding anyone unemployed after benefits run out and by excluding anyone who lost a high paying job and out of total desperation replaced it with a minimum wage job.
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Post by blygh on Nov 24, 2010 20:05:18 GMT -5
The problem we are facing, as I see it, is the "speed of money" - how fast it turns over. When people stop paying their mortgages, money is not returned to banks, who then have less money to lend out, small businesses cannot finance their operations, they lay off employee who then cannot pay their mortgages. Bernanke is forcing so much liquidity into the system that the bankers will choke on it and lend to anyone with a pulse. In boom times $1 tillion might change hands 30 times in a month; In the recession it only changes hands 15 times a month. So what's the solution - push another $1 trillion into the system to get the same effect. The train has slowed so the flow of goods has slowed - answer- add more box cars of goods so goods keep arriving at the same rate (especially housing).
What is interesting is the austerity route the UK and the EEU is taking - very dangerous in a democratic society. David Cameron, I think will be out on his butt in 18 months as the left embraces higher taxes on the wealthy to relieve the austerity. The same will happen in Ireland, Iceland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. Who gets elected depends on where you are in the business cycle. And nobody has repealed the business cycle - but Ben is trying
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ira85
New Member
Posts: 837
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Post by ira85 on Nov 26, 2010 23:03:31 GMT -5
Maybe we're being too pessimistic. What if things turn out better than we expect. Computers are becoming more powerful now faster than Moore's law predicted. A typical 2010 desktop computer has about the same computing power as an entry-level supercomputer in 1999. By 2012 IBM expects to have a supercomputer 10 times more powerful than the biggest of today. Odds are that power will enable scientific modeling that will lead to breakthroughs in algae-based biofuels, genetic engineering, nanotechnologies, pharmaceuticals, etc. We could see breakthroughs that could revolutionize transportation or agriculture that would stimulate all kinds of secondary benefits. Good things really could happen!
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Post by bankedout on Nov 27, 2010 11:28:50 GMT -5
Hopefully the right people will be using the new computing power to do good. If they are used by capitalists focused on profit, it might not be very beneficial. The pharmaceutical industry is a great example of that.
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Post by blygh on Nov 29, 2010 10:24:57 GMT -5
Well today's action (Nov 29) has me pretty well convinced we will have to do a lot of backfilling on the rise from Sept 1 to Nov 10. Same pattern as Jan to April 15. Holders of record have their yearly distributions locked up on their mutual funds and there is noting to drive the market that I can see. I am net short the market.
Blygh
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