NASDAQ per dg's timing model

[dg]

As of 6 March 2009,

there is major change in my long term timing model's NASDAQ signals from those previously reported back on 28 January 09.

buy signals are [0 0 0 0 0]; and sell signals are [1 1 1 1 1]

model advice: SELL SHORT

currently in [ CONFIRMED ] SHORTING STAGE

This is a panic sell scenario. Time to initiate short positions and/or bail long positions.

This is market day 7 of sell signal majority.

If interested, refer to "dg's model information" thread located at the "BUY/SELL STRATEGIES" board for technical description for performing signal analysis.

(These instructions result from my model and do not constitute "qualified investment advice." )

[dg]

The weekly SAR (using sd's values) switched to sell in the week of 20 jan 09. The daily SAR (using sd's values) last switched to sell at about 23 feb 09. Buy signal majority was first lost on 17 feb 09 and confirmed gone on 23 feb 09.

Because the status as of 28 jan 09 was to hold long with stops, no additional inputs by the model were needed until now (because theoretically stops would have exited long positions automatically as any corrections proceeded). Per the model, now is the time to initiate shorts.

(These instructions result from my model and do not constitute "qualified investment advice." )

[dg]

Here are the signals from 6 mar thru 10 mar 09 ........

      3/06      0 0 0 0 0      1 1 1 1 1        1293.849976
      3/09      0 0 0 0 0      1 1 1 1 1        1268.640015
      3/10      0 0 0 0 0      0 1 1 1 1        1358.280029

[/size]

Surprise! shorting signal has apparently turned off shortly after confirming. (now 9 days of sell signal majority)

[dg]

Here are the signals from 10 thru 13 mar 09 .........

      3/10      0 0 0 0 0      0 1 1 1 1        1358.280029
      3/11      0 0 0 0 0      0 1 1 1 1        1371.640015
      3/12      0 1 0 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1426.099976 

[/size]

Well shorting stage was a flip flop into nozzle stage? Strange! First day of buy signal majority. It isn't clear what one should do given these signals. Sitting out is probably best.

[dg]

As of 13 March 2009,

there is minor change in my long term timing model's NASDAQ signals from those previously reported back on 12 March 09.

buy signals are [0 1 1 0 1]; and sell signals are [0 0 0 1 0]

model advice: COVER STOP SHORTS, HOLD LONGS

currently in [ CONFIRMED ] NOZZLE STAGE

This is a stage characterized by an early minor correction followed by a significant rally. Normally, it is the stage that follows CHERRY stage.

This is market day 2 of buy signal majority.

If interested, refer to "dg's model information" thread located at the "BUY/SELL STRATEGIES" board for technical description for performing signal analysis.

(These instructions result from my model and do not constitute "qualified investment advice." )

[dg]

Here are the signals for 12 thru 18 march 2009 ...

      3/13      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1431.500000
      3/16      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1404.020020
      3/17      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1462.109985
      3/18      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1491.219971 

[/size]

Still nozzle stage.

[dg]

As of 18 March 2009,

there is insignificant change in my long term timing model's NASDAQ signals from those previously reported back on 13 March 09.

buy signals are [0 1 1 0 0]; and sell signals are [0 0 0 1 1]

model advice: COVER STOP SHORTS, HOLD LONGS

currently in [ CONFIRMED ] NOZZLE STAGE

This is a stage characterized by an early minor correction followed by a significant rally. Normally, it is the stage that follows CHERRY stage.

This is market day 5 of buy signal majority.

If interested, refer to "dg's model information" thread located at the "BUY/SELL STRATEGIES" board for technical description for performing signal analysis.

(These instructions result from my model and do not constitute "qualified investment advice." )

[dg]

signals from 3/18 thru 3/27 ....

      3/18      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1491.219971
      3/19      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1483.479980
      3/20      0 1 1 0 0      0 0 0 1 1        1457.270020
      3/23      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1555.770020
      3/24      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1518.739990
      3/25      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1528.949951
      3/26      1 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1587.000000
      3/27      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1545.199951 

failed cherry stage with 5 days buy signal majority

[dg]

As of 27 March 2009,

there is insignificant change in my long term timing model's NASDAQ signals from those previously reported back on 18 March 09.

buy signals are [0 1 1 0 1]; and sell signals are [0 0 0 1 0]

model advice: HOLD LONG

currently in [ CONFIRMED ] NOZZLE STAGE

This is a stage characterized by an early minor correction followed by a significant rally. Normally, it is the stage that follows CHERRY stage. CHERRY stage flipped on and off late last week.

This is market day 5 of buy signal majority.

If interested, refer to "dg's model information" thread located at the "BUY/SELL STRATEGIES" board for technical description for performing signal analysis.

(These instructions result from my model and do not constitute "qualified investment advice." )

[blyghme]

Well I am for one am impressed at the predictive valur of the model
Blygh

[dg]

Glad you like it blygh. I've been pondering whether to try a subscription website service using it for meaningful etfs. But it would cost me practically $1000 per year to set up plus nearly an hour per business day to operate. I don't have a clue where an unknown like myself could find enough subscribers to make it worthwhile as a business venture. I don't even use it that much myself due to having a shorter time horizon interest than it does. For me it is just background information. It answers the question: where is the thing I am analyzing at from a behavior perspective? It can't predict the future; but it can reveal the most probable expectation at the moment.

But just for fun, should I end up doing it someday as a business, what do you think a yearly subscription should cost and which etfs do you think should absolutely be evaluated daily using it as I do currently for the nasdaq index? (same questions to anyone else that cares to reply)

BTW, here are the current updates to the signals .......

      3/27      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1545.199951
      3/30      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1501.800049
      3/31      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1528.589966
      4/01      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1551.599976
      4/02      0 1 1 0 1      0 0 0 1 0        1602.630005
      4/03      0 0 0 0 1      0 1 0 1 0        1621.869995 

Following the cherry failure to confirm, buy signal majority continued briefly -- but has now just switched to sell signal majority. This would appear a good time to set sell stops.

[bankedout]

You can create a Google site for free:

sites.google.com

There you can have your site viewed by invitation only, and not open to the public.

I think it would be easier to find members if you had a monthly fee instead of a yearly fee. Maybe you could offer a discount if they paid for a whole year up front. In this economy, you would want to keep the fee low. Maybe $10 a month? Paypal would work for collecting money from people.

I think the leveraged ETFs are hot for short term trading. However in your normal model's timeframe, they will probably not work correctly.

[dg]

bankedout:

Thanks for the suggestions. My biggest concern however is how I would attract subscribers. I don't see any way for a no name entity like myself to essentially sell analytical market analyses to the public -- even at a penny per year.

And if you do the math, 22 man hours per month should be worth at least $1100 (@$50/hr -- my plumber charges three times that btw). At $10/mo, that would require a base of at least 110 subscribers. Personally, I doubt that I could get 10. This is why it will probably never happen.

[blyghme]

Well dg nothing succeeds like success - if your models work - believe me - it will spread like wide fire - I think your signals are better than a lot pay for news letters and websites. The usual businness model (like Zacks) is to give it away then when it proves its worth start chargingI would pay $50 a month for a good predictive model (one that make me money a majority of the time_

Blygh

[dg]

That must be MSN's concept with groups. I have to wonder if all free website platforms have that as their basic strategy.

As to how well my model works, I would send you back into the MSN archives to see how it has performed over the past several years; but alas, msn erased all that -- so all you have now is what exists here. Yet you seem to like it; but it hasn't spread like wildfire. And how can it with only 9 members even aware of its existence?

Oh well. It's free here (when I get around to doing it). I now only update it about once a week. Given my personal circumstances, I don't have much interest in the market anymore. I just run the horserace for the guys that like playing in it.